There has been a lot of buzz these past few days about Apple’s battle against the world. Apple picked 2 influential companies directly, Google and Adobe, and many smaller ones indirectly.
History tells the story of a once integrated solution provider Apple vs. a use it everywhere Microsoft. Today Android is allowing it’s system to run on any hardware and will be running on non-Apple tablets. The adoption will generate an increasing base of users on Android which in turn will create incentives for application developers to focus on this open platform to generate revenues. That’s been the history so far…
Apple consumers might become a niche of early adopters fading away while the masses might find Android powered devices to be “good enough”. Besides, Apple is making things tough for application developers and is ultimately affecting its consumers today as, for example, they have trouble using flash based applications. Switching costs for Apple users to start using Android devices are still not that high so there is still an opportunity for the market to tilt towards Android and once the network effects kick in it will be a winner-takes-all play.
Steve Jobs has suffered the results of these dynamics before and is still playing the game all over again. Does he have something that powerful to prevent this natural effect or is he so obnoxious that he will bet his company and hope for the best? It will be fun and exciting to watch and see if new theory can be written!
I absolutely agree with your observation. I was in my 20's when Apple released the Apple II and they are basically repeating history which is that they are the only game in town until the rest of the world figures out their secret sause and gang up on them. I wrote this up recently, hope you like. http://buzz.dennykmiu.com/ipad-is-the-prequel
ReplyDeleteYou're forgetting that AAPL might be OK with not having insane market share. BMW, Porsche, Lexus, etc., all have small market shares but produce great and highly desirable (and profitable, though not every single year in a row) cars. It's been said that Apple is perfectly content selling its high-end, well-designed products to people that really want them, even if it is a sub-10% market share, whether it be computers/desktops/laptops or mobile phones.
ReplyDeleteI would like to believe this, but there are two key differences with the past MacOS vs. Windows.
ReplyDeleteiPhone has more apps and games than Android. Windows had more apps and games than MacOS.
The UI differences between MacOS and Windows 31 were not so great. Windows 95 was way better than MacOS IMHO.
The Android UI isn't even remotely tolerable when compared to the iPhone/iPad UI.
Apple's move seems strange considering that smart phones and mobile devices will grow from a few hundred million today, to literally billions in the next 5 years. Perhaps they recognize what must be true that Android and MSFTs upcoming new mobile OS will grab a large share, and they are merely trying to ensure a lock-in among some higher end users.
ReplyDeleteTime will tell. I loved the iPhone first when I got it, but what has it done for me lately? I mean next time I buy a phone it better allow me to watch any video and run both Flash and Silverlight, and basic office software.